From DEMOCRACY AND PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH NETWORK
Robert Alexander, professor of political science, Bowling Green State University
Melissa Miller, professor of political science, Bowling Green State University
David J. Jackson, professor of political science, Bowling Green State University
Joshua Boston, professor of political science, Bowling Green State University
The Democracy and Public Policy Research Network at Bowling Green State University has released the findings of its February poll, a web-based poll of 800 registered Ohio voters conducted from Feb. 14-21, 2025. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points and is weighted to 2024 presidential vote choice.
For questions 26 and 27, the sample was split in half (400-400) and the margin of error for those is +/- 5.69 for question 26 and +/- 5.63 for question 27, respectively.
The poll was conducted under the direction of BGSU professors Dr. Robert Alexander, Dr. Melissa K. Miller, Dr. David Jackson, and Dr. Joshua Boston in partnership with YouGov.
Despite big win in Ohio, Trump continues to be a polarizing figure
President Donald Trump has enjoyed great success in Ohio, surprising many with 8-point victories in 2016 and 2020 and an even larger 11-point victory this past November.
His endorsement has been much sought after, proving critical to the success of Vice President JD Vance’s victory in a crowded 2022 Republican primary. Despite this, he holds a 50% approval rating while 44% disapprove – historically low for a honeymoon period. Notably, his standing in Ohio is 4 points higher than his current national polling average of 46% approval. He holds an 89% approval rating among Republicans, while 92% of Democrats disapprove, and just 40% of Independents approve. Nearly equal numbers are very hopeful (38%) or not at all hopeful (34%) for his presidency.
When asked if respondents regretted their vote choice in November, just 3% indicated they did. Three-quarters of those who did regret their vote, voted for Trump and this small group tend to be younger, non white, and consider themselves to be an Independent.
“While Donald Trump has convincingly carried the Buckeye state 3 times, he is not having much of a traditional honeymoon with a bare majority of voters approving of the job he is doing in the Oval Office.” – Robert Alexander, professor of political science, BGSU
Buckeye voters support some Trump policies and oppose others
The lukewarm support we find for Trump is conveyed when we asked respondents what they think about various executive orders and policies he has undertaken.
Several policies suggest a great deal of popularity among Ohio registered voters. These include the federal recognition that there are two sexes: male and female (61% to 32%), ending federal remote work policies (50% to 40%), banning TikTok unless it is sold to a non-Chinese company (51% to 32%), and constructing a wall at the southern border even if he does not have congressional approval (53% to 39%). We see less support to terminate federal diversity, equity, and inclusion programs (49% to 42%), opening up offshore drilling in federally owned waters (48% to 40%), and enacting a freeze on federal hiring (46% to 40%).
A majority of respondents do not support changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America (51% to 36%); withdrawing the United States from the World Health Organization (51% to 38%); and a plurality do not support renaming Alaska’s Denali back to Mount McKinley (43% to 32%).
“We see varying degrees of support for Trump policies with Democrats and Republicans predictably lined up on opposite sides and Independents who show the most variation in what they do and don’t like about Trump’s Executive Orders. Partisanship is clearly determining how respondents view Trump’s policies.” – Robert Alexander, professor of political science, BGSU
Ramaswamy the early favorite among Republicans, Democrats seek to be competitive
Former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is the early favorite among prospective Republican primary voters. Although few candidates have announced, Ramaswamy is the early choice of 61% of respondents, while current Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost polls at 24% and Heather Hill is at 6%.
The poll was conducted before Trump’s coveted endorsement was announced.
Ramaswamy is well known compared to Yost and Hill which is likely driving much of his early support.
Former Ohio Health Director Dr. Amy Acton is the only Democrat to announce a bid for governor.
We asked respondents about other prominent Democrats including Tim Ryan and Sherrod Brown –two of the more prominent Democrat names in the state.
Among Democratic primary voters in a three-way race for the nomination, 59% chose Brown, 20% chose Acton, and 17% chose Ryan.
In a two-way race between Acton and Ryan, they were statistically tied 46% to 45%.
In addition to the governor’s race, Ohio will also have a critical Senate seat on the ballot in 2026. Although he has held statewide office for over a decade, a majority of respondents (52%) have no opinion of recently appointed Senator, Republican Jon Husted. In head-to-head matchups Husted prevails over Sherrod Brown 47-41 and Tim Ryan 45-38.
Notably, a majority of Ohioans do not have an opinion of Husted’s replacement, former Ohio State football coach Jim Tressel (53%) but those that do view him more favorably than unfavorably by more than a 2-1 margin. Tressel has not ruled out running for office once his term is over.
“Although early, Republicans appear to be in a strong position with all statewide offices and a Senate seat on the ballot in 2026. Midterm elections typically do not fare well for the party of the president and Democrats will need a lot of wind at their backs to be competitive given recent outcomes in the state.” – Robert Alexander, professor of political science, BGSU
Question wording drives support for some issues while others are more stable
How Democrats and Republicans frame public policies vary considerably from one another. We sought to test this by randomly dividing our polling sample into two groups–each of which was asked about public policies that were framed differently for each group.
In several cases, we found that the framing of the policy considerably changed how respondents viewed those policies.
For instance, we see a net +19 point difference (54% support minus 35% oppose ) in support among those who agree with “no longer granting entry at the southern border for those seeking asylum from another country,” compared to a net +2 point difference (43% support minus 41% oppose) in support among those would no longer grant “entry at the southern border for those seeking protection from conflict or persecution in their home country.”
Question wording also made a difference in how respondents viewed the January 6 pardons.
Notably, in each case, more opposed than supported the president’s use of his pardon power. When asked about the pardons of all “who participated in the January 6th riots at the Capitol in 2021,” the difference between those who supported versus opposed was -9 (41% minus 50%). For those who read that same text and had the additional language of: “including those who pleaded guilty for their crimes,” the difference was -17 (36% minus 53%).
Finally, while we see a net -1 point difference (46% to 47%) among those who would support “ending birthright citizenship for the children of undocumented immigrants born in the United States” we see a net -12 point difference (40% to 52%) among those who would support “ending birthright citizenship, which is guaranteed by the 14th Amendment for the children of undocumented immigrants who are born in the United States.”
Question wording had little effect on some issues including higher tariffs on Canada and Mexico (majorities for both groups opposed), higher tariffs on China (majorities from both groups supported), and withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord (pluralities from both groups opposed).
“Controlling narratives is a key component to success in politics. Our results show that how issues are framed can certainly affect citizens’ levels of support or opposition to those issues.” – Robert Alexander, professor of political science, BGSU
Deep distrust of politics
Distrust of the federal government is high in Ohio. More than two-thirds (68%) believe the government in Washington can be trusted only some of the time or never, while just 12% believe it can be trusted always or most of the time. Democrats (29%) and Independents (27%) were much more likely than Republicans (16%) to say that the federal government can never be trusted.
We also asked which specific government institutions could be trusted to “do what is right.” Congress fared poorly, with only 13% reporting trust and virtually no partisan differences.
Though still low, a higher proportion (35%) trust the president. Here there were sharp partisan differences. Among Democrats, only 5% trust the president, versus 61% of Republicans and 24% of Independents. Results for the U.S. Supreme Court were similar, with 34% expressing trust driven largely by Republicans (47%) versus Independents (31%) and Democrats (17%).
State-level institutions also elicited low levels of trust. The Ohio legislature was trusted by just 17% of Ohio voters, while the governor was trusted by 22% and the Ohio Supreme Court was trusted by 24%.
For each, trust was higher among Republicans than among Democrats and Independents.
“Trust in government has been low since the Watergate era. What’s striking today is how much trust in specific institutions is contingent on partisanship. Republicans appear to wear rose-colored glasses, while Democrats sport glasses tinted blue.” – Melissa K. Miller, professor of political science, BGSU
Range of constitutional knowledge
When queried about their knowledge of the U.S. Constitution, Ohio voters demonstrate a range of knowledge. At the low end, only one third (36%) correctly identified the U.S. House of Representatives as the institution that would break a tie between presidential candidates in the Electoral College. At the high end, 79% correctly identify U.S. Supreme Court justices as serving lifetime appointments. Moderate levels of knowledge were demonstrated on other aspects of the Constitution.
Two-thirds know that seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are apportioned according to each state’s population, while 62 correctly identified freedom of religion as a right guaranteed by the First Amendment. Sixty percent know that a U.S. Senator’s term lasts six years.
On all five constitutional items, the college educated demonstrated significantly more knowledge than those without a college degree. In each case, those with college degrees outpaced the less educated by double digits. The largest difference was a 22-point knowledge gap on the length of a U.S. Senator’s term. Seventy-four percent of those with a college degree correctly identified the term as six years in length, versus 52%of those without a college degree.
A gender gap favoring men was evident on four of our five constitutional knowledge questions. Consistent with prior research in this area, it appears to stem in large part from women’s higher propensity to select the “not sure” option. As with the education gap, the largest gender gap (21 points) emerged when respondents were asked to identify the length of term for U.S. senators.
“Whether Ohioans demonstrate considerable versus lackluster constitutional knowledge is a classic case of whether the glass is half empty or half full. What’s clear is that going to college fosters civic education, as evidenced by significantly higher levels of constitutional knowledge among those with college degrees.” – Melissa K. Miller, professor of political science, BGSU
