By JAN LARSON McLAUGHLIN
BG Independent News
As Ohioans watch primary election results roll in from around the nation, they may be wondering if their votes will count for much during Ohio’s primary next Tuesday.
Absolutely, say three local political science professors.
“It’s definitely not too late to play a significant role in the primary,” said Melissa Miller, of Bowling Green State University’s political science department.
Though it’s not Super Tuesday, next Tuesday offers candidates a chance to pick up some big delegate counts. Primaries will be held in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio.
Both Ohio and Florida are being watched closely, not just because each has a Republican home candidate, but also because both are winner-take-all states. So whoever wins Florida walks away with 99 delegates and whoever wins Ohio takes home 66 delegates.
With that in mind, Nicole Kalaf-Hughes, also from BGSU’s political science department, is expecting a big voter turnout in Ohio.
“I would hope so,” she said. “I think people are really tuned into the election here.”
If Donald Trump were to lose to Kasich in Ohio and Rubio in Florida, he would have to work even harder to get enough delegates to get the Republican nomination outright, according to David Jackson, also from BGSU’s political science department.
All three political science professors have been startled by Trump’s success wooing voters.
“It’s been a pretty big surprise,” Jackson said.
“They think he’s the solution to the country’s problems,” Miller said of Trump supporters.
Establishment Republicans, however, view Trump as a threat to their party. So much so that the 2012 GOP presidential nominee, Mitt Romney, laid out a strategy last week for the party to knock Trump off his pedestal. And Ohio is part of that plan.
The “anyone but Trump” strategy calls on Ohio voters to cast ballots for Kasich and Florida voters to support Rubio. Neither will gain great ground, but it may be enough to cause a brokered convention, where no one candidate goes in as the automatic winner.
“It’s pretty much too late to try to unite behind a single delegate,” to defeat Trump, Miller said.
The plan is not a “viable strategy,” but rather an “available strategy,” Miller said. “They were too slow to wake up to the Donald Trump insurgency.”
With a new push by the Republican establishment against Trump, the chances of a brokered convention are high. “Right now, it still looks like a strong possibility,” Jackson said.
Jackson explained that delegates only have to vote according to the primary electorate on the first ballot. If that ballot does not yield a clear winner with 1,237 votes or more, then the delegates can change their votes.
“It’s wide open and messy,” Jackson said.
One possibility is that the GOP selects another new alternative to present at the convention. Even if Trump gets the nomination, it’s possible a mainstream nominee could claim the mantle of the traditional Republican party, Jackson said.
“The Republicans may sacrifice the election to save the party,” he said.
Miller agreed it’s going to get messy. The party is facing a crisis, with a “huge gulf” forming between two sides.
“The establishment Republicans are horrified at the prospect” of Trump as their candidate. But none of the other options are neat and tidy.
“Can you imagine,” if Trump is denied the nomination, she asked. It’s doubtful his vocal supporters will go quietly and submit to a replacement candidate.
“They don’t have good options,” Miller said. “I think the Republican party is at a turning point,” with potential splintering looking more and more likely.
A glimpse at the bigger picture is also concerning for the GOP, since many fear that Trump’s name at the top of the ticket will lead to losses for Republican candidates for Congress and Senate.
“That’s going to turn off so many moderate voters,” Miller said.
And though Trump promised early on to not run as an Independent if someone else wins the nomination, Jackson questioned Trump’s commitment to that vow. “That was always with fingers crossed,” he said.
If Trump were to go rogue and run as an Independent, “all heck will break lose,” Miller predicted.
Though trailing Republican candidates hanging on in the primary, like Kasich, were previously nudged to drop out, the establishment now wants them to hang in – since that will promote the “anyone but Trump” strategy.
“Absolutely he should stay in through Ohio,” Miller said of Kasich.
“John Kasich has absolutely stuck to his message. He’s the last governor standing,” Miller said. “He’s not gone after Trump. He has not gone negative.”
And that seems to be paying off for Kasich, unlike Rubio, who “got in the gutter with Trump” during debates and campaign speeches.
But time is ticking away. “It’s kind of do or die for John Kasich,” Jackson said.
Jackson has also been surprised by Democrat Bernie Sanders’ strong performance as well.
“I think the Sanders’ phenomenon is certainly interesting,” he said.
If Hillary Clinton gets the nomination, she will need to find a way to reach out to Sanders’ supporters, Jackson said.
“It’s just so wide open,” he said.
Kalaf-Hughes, who moved to Ohio from California in 2012, said Ohio’s swing state status gives residents here a closer view of the candidates.
“You’re going to see the candidates in Ohio a lot,” she said, noting that both Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama came to Bowling Green during the last presidential campaign.
Though California has 172 delegates, its primary isn’t until June and its electorate is not evenly divided between the two parties like Ohio.
“We in Ohio get all the attention,” Kalaf-Hughes said. “You don’t get that in California.”
