Early projections by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for the potential cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom severity in Lake Erie this summer point to a moderate bloom in the range of 2.5 and 6. (The maximum severity of 10 was set in 10, only to be exceeded in 2015).
The range in forecasted severity reflects the uncertainty in forecasting precipitation for late June and July. More, and harder, rainfall washes more phosphorus into the lake.
The projected severity depends on input of total bioavailable phosphorus (TBP) from the Maumee River during the loading season (March 1-July 31), and uses a combination of measurements and forecasts of Maumee River discharge from the National Weather Service – Ohio River Forecast Center (through early July) and phosphorus loads measured by the Heidelberg University National Center for Water Quality Research.
The NOAA will issue a comprehensive seasonal forecast on June 29.
Any bloom that does develop will change throughout the summer and move with the wind and currents; we will provide information on the presence and location of the bloom throughout the summer.
