Researchers with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are continuing to project that the harmful algae bloom in western Lake Erie will be smaller than last year’s. This is in line with what they have been forecasting this spring.
The most recent NOAA report projects a bloom of a severity between 3 and 5, possibly up to 6. Last year’s bloom had a severity of 7.5. The level of severity was originally framed to top out at 10, but the bloom in 2015 went over that level of severity to 10.5.
The estimate of potential bloom severity is based on a combination of measurements and forecasts of river discharge and phosphorus loads from now into July. These projections will be updated weekly with new data and weather models through the end of June. NOAA said few substantial rainfalls are expected in the next few weeks, though the severity of rainfall cannot be forecasted precisely.
These forecasts look at the extent of the bloom, not its toxicity. Researchers are still looking at ways to predict toxicity.
