Projections for the harmful Algal bloom in Lake Erie continue to show an increase in severity because of the heavy spring rains.
The projection issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration puts the severity at 7 on a scale of 10. That is much more severe than last year which was a 4, and more in line with 2017. The projection is based on how much bioavailable phosphorus is flowing into Lake Erie from the Maumee River during the spring. Agricultural run-off from fertilizer and manure are the prime source of that run-off.
The projection only addresses the size of the bloom. It does not predict how toxic the algae will be, nor how long the bloom will last.
The estimates of severity have been ticking up. Two weeks ago it was estimated to be a 6, and last week a 6.5.
