By JAN LARSON McLAUGHLIN
BG Independent News
Ohio is just a face in the crowd of 50 states most years. But every fourth year, we have bragging rights that our votes truly count. As Ohioans, we get showered with attention every presidential election – and unlike citizens in New York or California, we matter.
That’s because Ohio has picked winners in presidential elections 28 out of 30 times since 1896.
“Ohio, hands down is the most important,” said Melissa Miller, political science professor at Bowling Green State University. “We have the best record of swinging to the winner.”
Ohio isn’t just a bellwether state, it is THE bellwether state, Miller said Tuesday. And this year, we may well be the swingingest of the swing states.
“We could be the Florida of 2000,” she said.
Miller will be giving a presentation for the public about Ohio’s status as a swing state, Wednesday at 7 p.m., at Zoar Lutheran Church, 314 E. Indiana Ave., in Perrysburg.
Miller will talk about Ohio’s role as a battleground state – which puts its residents in the bulls eye for both Hillary Clinton’s and Donald Trump’s campaigns. The latest polls which include all four candidates – Clinton, Trump, the Libertarian’s Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein – show Clinton and Trump incredibly close in Ohio.
“They’ve been neck and neck for a long time,” she said.
And the campaigns know more about Ohio than many Ohioans do. They know that Ohio most closely maps the national popular vote. The average deviation has only been off by 2.2 percent in the last 30 elections, Miller said.
They know Ohio most often puts the winner over the top in the Electoral College. “That’s huge,” she said. “We provide the last little edge” to push the winner over the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win. “That to me is just stunning.”
Other battleground states are important. But none of them – not Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Iowa or New Hampshire – have the long history of picking winners like Ohio.
With our battleground status comes some privileges and some pain. We have more power, and are listened to more by the campaigns. The saying, “one person, one vote,” may hold true – it’s just that our votes count more.
“Ohio voters have more influence,” than true blue or red states, Miller said. “That gives Ohio a privileged position.”
It’s not that those votes come cheap. We pay for those with endless campaign commercials, robo calls, knocks on our doors, and candidate visits to our communities.
“We are so privileged to be the picker of presidents. Not only do we have undue influence, but you don’t get a front row seat if you live in North Dakota or Massachusetts.” So we are more pampered than voters in other states. The campaigns offer Ohio voters rides to the polls. They make voter registration extra convenient.
“We are just showered with attention, sometimes to our chagrin,” she said.
But the way Miller sees it, the more attention, the better.
“I love living in a battleground state. Every four years, I have a seat on the 50-yard line of the Super Bowl,” she said. “I’m like a kid in a candy store.”
Unlike many of you reading this, Miller does not reach for the remote every time political ads come on TV. “I don’t change channels,” she said.
Miller is also listening carefully to the frequently updated polling numbers. When her students express doubts in the legitimacy of polls, Miller explains that polls are not fixed. “No pollster wants to get it wrong.”
However, she also explains that it’s getting increasingly difficult for pollsters to get random samples. The numbers often vary depending on whether registered or likely voters are polled. Those surveys that don’t call cell phones as well as landlines aren’t representative of our population. And citizen intolerance to telephone polls tend to skew the results.
“It’s increasingly difficult to get a random sample,” she said.
In order to give her audience some fresh details Wednesday evening, Miller said she would reveal the following information during her speech:
- Whose campaign, Clinton’s or Trump’s, is better organized in Ohio.
- Of Ohio’s 88 counties, which two are the very best at picking out presidential winners.
- The advantages and disadvantages that both Clinton and Trump carry for Ohio.
- Future threats to Ohio’s battleground state status.
Miller will not take sides in the presidential election. She just wants to share her fascination with the process. But she does want citizens to use their powerful votes.
“There’s a lot of malaise in the middle,” she said. “Regardless of which side you are on, you ought to vote.”
